Monday, August 15, 2022

could uncertainty increase the effectiveness of icing the kicker

I remember when I stated watching football decades ago now, in the early 1980s. There was this novel strategy that coaches used when the opponent was facing a late and crucial field goal attempt.

The coach would call a timeout before the opponent could kick. This strategy is known as "icing the kicker". The timeout is supposed to disrupt the kickers preparation routine, and make the kicker spend more time thinking about the critical kick he has to make. The idea is that the kickers will miss more of these kicks as a result of the timeout.

Now over the decades, I've never seen a coach fail to use the timeout to try to ice the kicker. So what does this mean from the kicker's perspective as he sets up and mentally prepares for the kick. Well he knows for certain that if the other coach still has a timeout, then the coach will call the timeout. 

So at this point the timeout has been internalized and incorporated into the preparation for the kick. The kicker, along with everyone, knows it is going to be called. So I believe icing now has little effect in reducing the success rate of these kicks.

So the alternate strategy I'm suggesting. Some of the time, maybe 25% say, on a random basis that only the coach knows, don't call the timeout. This will introduce uncertainty into the kickers mental preparation and kick routine. He doesn't know for sure now if he really has to kick, or if timeout will be called before the snap. 

I believe that the strategy of usually calling timeout to ice the kicker, combined with the uncertainty and unpredictability of sometimes not calling the timeout and just making him kick without delay, will result in overall lower success rate; than the current strategy which is to always call time.