No Canadian teams in the NHL playoffs this year

Well another regular season wraps up this weekend. Drama-free for the Canadian teams, none of them came close to making the playoffs and all were eliminated some time ago.

Well what to make of it? Is it a fluke or are the NHL teams from Canada systemically underperforming?

It's not difficult to calculate the random chance of no Canadian teams making the playoffs. There are 30 teams in the NHL and 7 Canada teams. 16 teams make the playoffs each year.

So there are 30C16 or 145,422,675 ways to randomly select playoff teams. There are 23 American teams so 23C16 or only 245,157 ways to select just American teams for the playoffs.

So the random chance of all 7 Canadian teams missing the playoffs is 0.001685824, or about 1 in 593.

hmmm 1 in 593. Well that's unlikely but not astronomically unlikely. So was this season really this crazy 600-to-1 longshot or is there other evidence of underperformance by the Canadian teams as a whole. There is a bit of data. If the Canadian teams as a group are underperforming then the odds of all of them missing the playoffs in a season is a lot better than 592-1.

The current 23-7 balance traces to 2011-2012, when the Winnipeg Jets became Canada's 7th team. So 5 seasons now. In a given season 16 of 30 teams get in the playoffs, so in general each team has about a 53% chance to make the playoffs. With 7 teams the expectation then would be about 3.7 Canadian teams in the playoffs each season. Over 5 seasons then we would have expected to have 18.67 Canadian playoff teams. Let's check the data.

Season	Canadian Teams in NHL Playoffs
2011-2012	2
2012-2013	4
2013-2014	1
2014-2015	5
2015-2016	0
Total	12

So we can see that Canada is well below expectation. In the 4 years before this season the expectation was 15 playoff teams, so 12 of 15 is about 80% of the expected amount. Including this season we are now off by a third of where Canada should be. So it's a concern that the Canada NHL teams are systemically uncompetitive.

Moses and Joshua

I somehow didn't realize Joshua is a Jewish name. It's as Jewish as Moses. I wonder how many Joshua parents know that or have read chapters 1-11 of the book of Joshua. Oh well. Joshua succeeded Moses as leader of Israel.

Well Israel certainly got to work after the Lord stopped the Jordan river to get them across. It's impressive in it's own way, the uh, thoroughness. Everywhere they went, Jericho, Ai and beyond they put "all who breathed" to the sword. Everyone, kids, the elderly, pregnant women. It was what it was I guess.

It makes me think a bit, the people of Ai. They had their place in Israel's narrative as it turned out. Surely there were at least some good people in Ai. Maybe there's something to that. There is our own story, good things and bad things that happen, good luck and things that are hard to understand. Then there's the larger story, the tide of human events which everyone is pulled along in and influences in our own way. There is free will and people make our own decisions which causes outcomes. Still like the people of Ai we all have some place in the overall scheme.

Corolla 100k

An important milestone recently passed on my car. My 2010 Toyota Corolla just passed the 100,000 kilometres mark on the odometer. I got the car a bit over a year ago. It's run pretty well. There was a thing I got fixed during the summer with brake caliper is the biggest thing I've had done. For the most part it's run well with few problems.

I took it to Rust Check today. At 5 years old it's probably about that time. They were good there. Friendly and finished fast despite it being a busy day there at the shop. I hadn't been there before but would go back. If the weather is dry tomorrow I'll put the winter tires on. I've got my own rims now and can do it yourself on the winter tires change. Not sure why I didn't figure that out years ago, oh well.


So 5 years old and 100,000 km. About 20,000 a year. That's the same rate I had on the old Honda Civic which got up to 200,000. That was a good car that 2005 Civic. At this rate if the Corolla goes 3 more years it will be 8 years old and 160,000 and I would be pleased with it. Anything from there is bonus. That's very reachable for a Corolla from what I hear, and I've tried to take care of the car so it will last, not drive it too hard.

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

I finished another book. It was The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared by Jonas Jonasson. I really liked this book.

It's the story of Allan Karlsson. He's a Swede born in 1905. On the day of his 100th birthday in 2005 Allan climbs out the window of his nursing home and goes on an eventful bus trip. Along the way Allan meets some interesting and funny characters. light fingered ne'er do wells and loafers provide spontaneous company and accompany Allan on this ad hoc journey late in his life. Along the way they have to stay a step ahead of the dangerous criminal gang Never Again who Allan has run afoul of. Also there is a police inspector who likes his drink, and an ambitious prosecutor who are trying to locate Allan and his new friends.

Through the book it tells Alan's remarkable life story. Allan early on develops a skill with dynamite. This proves useful through the 20th century. Later by chance Allan ends up at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project years and gains some useful insight while working as a steward there. Allan goes on a wild ride meeting famous world leaders from Franco in Spain to Lyndon Johnson and many in between.

It's a well written book. Pretty believable despite Allan's unbelievable life. Also quite amusing in parts. I can understand why this book is so popular. I'm glad I read it and recommend.

Little Women by Louisa May Alcott

I finished another book. It was Little Women by Louisa May Alcott. It took me a long time to read it, many years overall. I'd got it at the library years ago and got about half through it. Then I had to return it and never got back to it, though I'd never forgotten the book.

I saw it out on the display at the library recently and I grabbed it. I quickly realized I'd forgotten much of what I'd covered years ago so I started from the beginning. Thanks to the Internet I was able to renew the loan a couple of times and with a final push finish it this time.

It was a good book. A charming, enjoyable read. The March family are likeable and the book is targeted to a younger audience so it was an easy read. There was a difference between volume I and volume II you can see the second part was a bit contrived and didn't have quite the cadence of volume I.

I know there's a movie about it. Was interesting because it was written long before films were around. Yet reading it it has the feel of a screenplay we see in many modern books. I know there are a number of books around the March family but this is fine. I'm glad to have finished this book after all these years.

Numbers 22

I recently came across a remarkable chapter in the Bible. Check out Numbers 22. Featuring Moab, a talking donkey, and an angel with sword drawn. awesome!