COVID-19 and life expectancy

There's some interesting data now out of Florida around COVID-19 and life expectancy. With COVID-19, Florida Phoenix

The average age of death is 76.57, according to the data analyzed Sunday, with more men than women dying. More than 80 percent of deaths were those aged 65 and over.

Now outside of COVID-19, the average life expectancy is per Florida Sun Sentinel

Florida’s average life expectancy is 79.6 years old. That’s a little older than the national average of 78.8 years.

Finally some usable data.

so it appears the result on life expectancy from COVID is a decline from 79 to 76. Overall it's not actually that bad, as 76 is the COVID-19 number, thus it only affects those who die of COVID-19. Many elderly won't, and they will still get their 79 years average. So the 3-year decline in life expectancy from 79 to 76 actually only affects those who die of COVID-19. So the overall decline in life expectancy due to COVID will be less than three years.

The biggest issue with the decline in life expectancy and COVID is that it just appeared here in 2020. Thus the 2020 mortality will include

• those who were going to die in 2020 anyway, with or without COVID-19
• some people who would have died in 2021, but died in 2020 because of COVID-19
• some people who would have died in 2022, but died in 2020 because of COVID
• some people who would have died in 2023, but died in 2020 because of COVID

now in 2021 if nothing changes it should get better. the 2021 expectation becomes

• those who were going to die in 2021 anyway
• minus the 2021 who died in 2020
• plus some COVID who would have died in 2022
• plus some COVID who would have died in 2023
• plus some COVID who would have died in 2024

Now by 2024 all of the new excess mortality due to the sudden introduction of COVID and a 3-year life expectancy decline into the elderly population should have worked their way through. it should start improving in 2021, and be to the steady state by 2024. COVID-19 will just be another condition that old people die of, one of many.

old people get die. they just do

There are many serious conditions that affect the entire population. however they primarily affect the elderly, and can be a cause of death. This short list includes

• heart attack
• stroke
• heart failure
• cancer (many forms)
• diabetes
• ALS
• Alzheimer's
• dementia
• Parkinson's
• Huntington's
• liver failure
• kidney failure
• COPD / respiratory failure / sleep apnea
  
• the flu
• falls
• natural causes

now in 2020 this new condition has unfortunately been added to the list of health hazards faced by the elderly

• COVID-19

so of course masks, lockdowns, all that, will fail. there was a lockdown just a few weeks ago, and what do we have to show for that? now the same authorities who demonstrated their incompetence in the first failed lockdown, want to go back into lockdown. the insanity of trying the same thing again and again and expecting a different result

the reality is COVID-19 will in the near term reduce life expectancy of people alive today by something less than three years. that's the bad news. the good news is that life expectancy has been rising for decades, centuries now. so this immediate three year decline due to the sudden appearance of COVID-19 will be made up soon enough. other good news is that there is active research into vaccine and treatment of COVID. So the occurrence of COVID should decline, while survivability should increase.